And Now… Part Two of
And Now…
Part Two of my Buddy Dave’s Oscar Preview
___________________________________________
Okay, so here’s the rest…
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amelie – Guillaume Laurant & Jean-Pierre Jeunet
Gosford Park – Julian Fellowes
Memento – Christopher Nolan & Jonathan Nolan
Monster’s Ball – Milo Addica & Will Rokos
The Royal Tenenbaums – Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson
Will Win: Memento
Should Win: Memento
Finally, a category where I can quote odds. Gosford’s
got the most favorable: 3/4. Whereas my pick comes in
second with 4/5. I’m sticking with my pick because
this is one category where Oscar usually gets it
right. They tend to pick an indie (or pseudo-indie)
with a lauded screenplay that’s too quirky or
intelligent to play to mass audiences. See “Fargo”,
“Pulp Fiction”, “Good Will Hunting”, er, maybe not
that last one. Anyway, Memento fits the mold.
Tenenbaums does, too, but it’s not as well known (and
if they’re not even gonna nominate Gene Hackman, they
probably aren’t paying very much attention). (Odds
come from Vegas and a national pool of critics, see
www.goldderby.com for details)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Mind – Akiva Goldsman
Ghost World – Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff
In the Bedroom – Stephen Gaghan & Todd Field
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring –
Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson
Shrek – Ted Elliot, Ted Elliot, Joe Stilman & Roger
S.H. Schulman
Will Win: A Beautiful Mind
Should Win: A Beautiful Mind
The odds are 2/7 for this puppy. Just about everybody
else gets 8/1 except poor Ghost World, which, if it
were an original screenplay, would probably win, which
got 12/1. The screenplay is not what Hollywood loves
about LOTR, which is the only famous book here.
They’ll be happy to let Shrek get best animated pic
and nothing else. In The Bedroom will get best
actress. There’s no reason not to give it to ABM.
Oh, except all that controversy, but we’ll come back
to that.
Now, in terms of should win what I think is really
cool about this screenplay, (besides the fact that the
first half is funny as hell – totally unexpected) is
that it takes the problem presented in the book and
finds a unique visual way to present it to the
audience. To say any more would be to give away too
much but trust me, it’s cool. To me, though, that is
the essence of adaptation. It’s what made “Fight
Club” such a great adaptation. (Where the hell is
that Oscar, btw? Oh, right. Nobody cared. In fact,
Bill Mechanic got fired over that shit, but I
digress.)
I’ll talk more about the conspiracy/controversy crap
later.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amelie – France
Elling – Norway
Lagaan – India
No Man’s Land – Bosnia and Herzegovina
Son of the Bride – Argentina
Will Win: Amelie
Should Win: Amelie
OK. I haven’t actually seen any of the others except
Amelie. But trust me. Amelie fucking rocks. And
before I even saw it I was sure it would win best
foreign flick. It just had that kind of buzz. It’s
been at the Charles since freakin’ October or
something. It’s the Crouching Tiger/Life Is Beautiful
popular foreign flick of the year. It’s only
competition is “No Man’s Land” which has such a cool
premise it’ll make you wanna go see it. Difference
is, academy members already HAVE seen Amelie. Oh,
yeah. And Amelie got nominated for lots of other
stuff it won’t win.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius
Monsters, Inc.
Shrek
Will Win: Shrek
Should Win: Monsters, Inc.
This is another tough one. The oscar campaign for
Shrek has just been stronger. It started longer ago.
It’s already out on video. It made more money
(slightly, Shrek came in #3 and Monsters, Inc. #4 in
terms of 2001 b.o. – now you know why this category
exists.) It’s got bigger stars (we passed the point
where Eddie Murphy got a bigger paycheck than Billy
Crystal almost 20 years ago. Hell, we’ve already
passed the point where Mike Myers will get a bigger
paycheck than Billy Crystal) And it got nominated for
screenplay. Monsters didn’t.
But it should have. It’s a great screenplay. Very
funny. Very imaginative. Like all Pixar (a.k.a. the
most consistent studio in the world). Even the second
time around I was still laughing. (Shrek, not so much
– but it’s still a great movie, don’t get me wrong)
Monsters, Inc. is just a tighter film. Although I
have to admit I didn’t see Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius
so I could be wrong here.
Oh, and Waking Life? Better than all three. (Well,
deeper anyway). Another technicality (I assume). It
was shot on video and then painted over. It’s still
freakin’ animation people!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind
Helen Mirren – Gosford Park
Maggie Smith – Gosford Park
Marisa Tomei – In the Bedroom
Kate Winslet – Iris
Will Win: Maggie Smith
Should Win: I’m not even going to pretend to know.
Now we’re getting to the good stuff. And here’s where
I take my biggest risk. The smart money is on
Jennifer Connelly. Don’t let anyone tell you
different. The critics at goldderby.com (representing
pretty much every big entertainment rag there is) were
UNANIMOUS in picking Connelly for the gold. The odds
are 1/20!!! Everyone else has either 10/1 or 40/1
odds! You’d be fucking nuts to bet against her.
Here’s the thingŠ
I’ve got a hunch. I think this is going to be one of
those Marcia Gay Harden years. (Y’know, like, last
year?) I honestly believe the Academy is gonna pull
Maggie Smith out of their ass like so much James
Coburn in Affliction. I don’t why Maggie Smith. I
heard great things about her performance but that
makes her no different from the other 10/1 girl Helen
Mirren. And Marisa Tomei was in top form in In The
Bedroom but she’s got her supporting nod already.
It’s just a hunch. Pure and simple. No science. No
reason. No points for Dave if he’s wrong.
As far as who should win, I have a bad habit of never
having seen enough of the films in this category to
make even an educated guess. This year I saw two (if
I’d only gotten around to seeing Gosford Park I’d have
four dammit!) Of those two (ABM and In the Bedroom)
it’s a toss-up. I don’t knowŠMarisa. She just had a
little more to do than Jennifer, even though she was
in the movie less.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jim Broadbent – Iris
Ethan Hawke – Training Day
Ben Kingsley – Sexy Beast
Ian McKellen – The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship
of the Ring
Jon Voight – Ali
Will Win: Ian McKellen
Should Win: Ben Kingsley
I have to disagree with Walt here. He makes a good
point. And I could see Jim Broadbent running away
with it except I that I think the “Huh?” award is
going to Maggie this year. Ian McKellan just captured
everybody’s imagination. And, more importantly, he
fit into one of the two zeitgeists that’s gonna rule
the guys acting noms this year. I’ll get more into
this when I talk about best actor, but remember this:
It is important that in LOTR, Ian’s character is old
and cool at the same time. (Jim Broadbent plays old
too, but he ain’t throwin’ out lightning bolts and
shit like Gandalf)
Odds back me up here: They’re even.
Ben Kingsley should win. He has a lot more to do.
Don’t get me wrong, Ian’s great as Gandalf but Ben
fucking rocks as Don Logan. The fact that I remember
his character’s name and it was a generally
forgettable film should tell you something. He makes
the film. Well, the film never really gets “made” but
if anyone makes it watchable it’s him. He is such a
bad ass! And not as much of a bad ass as the press
built him up to be (which was part of the problem) but
still impressive andŠwait for itŠcomplex. You find
out why he is (or tries to be) such a bastard in the
movie and it’d be heartbreaking if he weren’t such a
jerk.
And where’s Haley Joel Osment? His performance in AI
(a.k.a. the most unironically – and therefore
frighteningly – Oedipal film of all time) was
something else. I never thought I’d see a 10-yr.-old
look world-weary but he pulls it off. That and about
a hundred other emotions. And he looks creepy as hell
for his first ten minutes of screen time. And
switches that shit completely up in the “imprinting”
scene which for me is enough to give him a nom. Check
it: He’s acting like creepy-ass Stepford child for the
first ten minutes until his “mom” tells him this code
that’s supposed to make him love her and only her for
eternity, blah, blah, blahŠUsing only his voice and
the slightest change in facial expression homeboy goes
from Damien to that kid from Jerry Maguire (except not
so obnoxious). Good shit.
BEST ACTRESS
Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
Judi Dench – Iris
Nicole Kidman – Moulin Rouge
Sissy Spacek – In the Bedroom
Renee Zelwegger – Bridget Jones’s Diary
Will Win: Sissy Spacek
Should Win: Halle Berry
Yes, Halle Berry won the SAG award even though Sissy
Spacek won every other award given out to an actress
during Oscar season. But, remember this: Sissy Spacek
won every other award given out to an actress during
Oscar season. ‘Nuff said. (Odds back me up here,
too, but just barely – Spacek 7/5, Berry 8/5)
Now, I haven’t seen Monster’s Ball, but I get the
impression from everything I’ve heard that Halle does
an incredible job with a complicated role. Spacek,
who I have seen, does a great job with a not so much
complicated role. I mean it ain’t simple, but it’s no
tour de force like Tom Wilkinson. More on him in a
minute. So, I’m willing to trust what I’ve heard for
now and say that in a perfect world I’d give Halle the
gold. Then I’d sleep with her. A lot.
BEST ACTOR
Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn – I Am Sam
Will Smith – Ali
Denzel Washington – Training Day
Tom Wilkinson – In the Bedroom
Will Win: Denzel Washington
Should Win: Tom Wilkinson
Where the hell is Russell Crowe? Being pissy at
BAFTA. That’s why he’s not on stage. That and about
a hundred other reasons. I’ll list three.
1. A vote for Crowe needs to be justified, a vote for
Denzel does not.
2. Crowe ain’t Spencer or Tom (see BAFTA)
3. Crowe will lose the battle of the zeitgeists.
Let’s take these one at a time:
First, because of all the freaking controversy over
John Nash, a vote for Russel Crowe is no longer just a
statement about your opinion about his performance,
but a statement about your opinion of John Nash. If
you vote for him you have to answer (at least to
yourself) questions like “Yeah, but didn’t he father
another child before marrying Jennifer Connelly?
Doesn’t he have sex with little boys? Isn’t he
anti-Semitic? Isn’t Russel Crowe a jerk?” No, wait,
we’ll come back to that last one. If you vote for
Denzel Washington, you get to tell yourself things
like, “Good for you! You’ve just struck a blow for
equality without having to actually do anything or
talk to any non-whites! Everyone will think you’re a
good person now! That black chick in my office will
have to do me when she finds out I voted for Denzel!”
Which would you rather hear?
Second, for Crowe to win this year he will have to win
two years in a row. This is an honor with which the
Academy has been remarkably stingy. They’re not much
likely to NOMINATE you two years in a row much less
let you win. (Although Crowe’s up to three now.)
However, for a special actor, say Tom Hanks, we’ll tie
the record set by one of our icons so many years ago.
How cheap does that record get if Russell Crowe, (mean
Russell Crowe, Australian Russell Crowe, got pissy at
the BAFTA ceremony Russell Crowe) wins a scant 7 years
later?
Third, there are two zeitgeists at work here and
surprisingly neither of them has anything to do with
September 11th. (Note the lack of war films released
or nominated – my early Black Hawk Down prediction
wasn’t really that good). There’s the old people
zeitgeist. As Walt is fond of pointing out, most of
the Academy members are old. Very old. Older than
your parents. This is because once you are a member
you cannot be kicked out. You have to pay you’re dues
but they’re pretty cheap. But once you’re in, even if
you never work on a film for the rest of your life,
you’re a member. It’s like the Barnstormers. So, by
now, there are a lot of OLD, OLD members. What do old
people like? Lots of things. Sunny days. Good sex.
Watching CBS. Hey, wait, what’s on CBS? Old people.
(Older anyway) And what are they doing? Cool stuff.
Like CSI or Judging Amy or, may God have mercy on its
soul, Walker Texas Ranger (Chuck Norris is freakin’
ooooold, people!) The Academy likes it when old
people do cool things. Just like I like it when nerdy
guys in films get the girl. (See ending, Pretty In
Pink, re: Kristie Swanson) So Gandalf and John Nash
are heroic old people. As academy members we want to
reward that. ButŠ Wait a minuteŠ Is thatŠCould it
beŠ?
Is that Sidney Poitier’s music I hear playing?
Yes, this year the Academy is going to give Sidney
“Little Nikita” Poitier an honorary Oscar. Here’s the
thing. He’s already got one. For a little movie
called “Lilies of the Field”. (The video cover of
which makes it look like it should be called “Naked
Black Giant vs. the Nuns!”) Yes, there is another
zeitgeist at work. Black people. This year, for some
reason that I don’t completely understand, the Academy
likes black people. And not in a “Hey, isn’t Cuba
Gooding, Jr. funny and harmless” sort of way or a
“Whoopi Goldberg sure helped those two white people
rekindle their love” manner or even a “Haley Mills is
helping engender a positive role model for slavery”
kind of way and especially not in a “The Color Purple
sure was good. Let’s reward it by nominating every
single actor in it and not giving them anything at
all!” way. No, they actually nominated three black
actors for best actor or actress for THREE DIFFERENT
FILMS! The underlying message here (intended or not)
is “There are enough good roles for black actors to go
around and if you take them you WILL be recognized for
it!” i.e. you don’t have to all cram into one “black”
film to have a hope in hell of winning something.
This zeitgeist is much less controversial in this
category because of John Nash. It will benefit Denzel
more than Smith because (a) Ali didn’t do as well
critically or at the box office and (b) Denzel has
established himself and, guess what, looks like the
inheritor to the throne ofŠwait for itŠSidney Poitier;
and Oscar eats that shit up!
I should add that Denzel’s performance was
outstanding. Truly. One of his best. HoweverŠwhat
Tom Wilkinson had to do was tougher. Much tougher.
Tom Wilkinson had to take an ordinary, fun-loving
father and husband and, well, I don’t want to give it
away but, he has to go through a transformation. Now,
actors go through transformations all the time. Crowe
does it in ABM, Haley does it in AI, but there’s one
difference here. Tom has to do it really, really,
really slowly. It’s all very subtle. And the one
thing that’s hard for an actor, ESPECIALLY a screen
actor to do is to be subtle about a change this big.
It has to register in his face. In his body language.
In his voice. In something ethereal that you can’t
even put your finger on. It almost has to present
itself subconsciously but you have to be able to watch
this guy and not even knowing what decision he’s just
made or what he’s about to do see this significant,
heartbreaking change. He’s not the same man you met
at the beginning of the film. Not hardly. And the
problem with a performance like this is that it’s just
not showy. It’s not sexy. Denzel’s performance (not
his character, exactly, but the performance) is much
sexier, much more attractive, much more showy. It’s
good, but I think what Tom had to do (and did with
aplomb) was much, much harder.
Incidentally, the odds only recently swayed in my
favor on this one: Denzel – 4/5.
BEST DIRECTOR
Ron Howard – A Beautiful Mind
Ridley Scott – Black Hawk Down
Robert Altman – Gosford Park
Peter Jackson – The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship
of the Ring
David Lynch – Mulholland Drive
Will Win: Ron Howard
Should Win: Peter Jackson
I’ll keep this simple. Ron Howard won the DGA award.
The DGA award is 90% accurate. I think this year will
not be a part of that 10%. Incidentally, he’s got
3/4 odds.
That having been said, I’m still a little surprised.
I have to admit that when Jen mentioned months ago
that she though Ron stood a shot because he’s been
around so long and the Academy will probably think
he’s due, I was a little skeptical. When will I learn
to listen to her? She guessed Robert Altman out of a
hat at the Golden Globes. So Ron’s up for it now,
well liked and none of these other yo-yo’s are gonna
stand in his way.
Altman – you think the Academy is finally gonna show
Altman the love? Me, neither
Scott – guess what? Your film wasn’t nominated for
Best Picture. Here’s the “buh” and here’s the “bye”.
Lynch – I refuse to let my kids grow up in a world
where he wins for this picture. “Blue Velvet” maybe.
This, no. nonononononononono.
Jackson. Ah, Jackson. Action Jackson. But I
digress. He should win. He did a better job of
directing. Pure and simple. He had more to do and he
did it admirably. I’ll be honest. I wasn’t totally
blown away like I expected by LOTR. I was a little
disappointed. But Peter Jackson’s direction wasn’t
the problem. (If you must know, it’s the screenplay,
but I already talked about that.) Peter Jackson’s
direction was incredible. He created a world,
populated it, undertook a daunting storytelling job,
etc. (But I kind of already talked about that, too,
so, moving onŠ)
BEST PICTURE
A Beautiful Mind
Gosford Park
In the Bedroom
Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
Moulin Rouge
Will Win: A Beautiful Mind
Should Win: HmmmŠ.let me think about it for a sec.
Oddsmakers agree (2/5), A Beautiful Mind is gonna beat
LOTR. But how? LOTR’s got more noms. Yes, but
almost none of them are acting. True, but ABM’s only
got one more acting nod that I don’t think it’s gonna
get anyway AND Titanic won without winning ANY acting
awards and nomination-wise LOTR’s got those kind of
numbers. So? It’s simpler than that. The Academy
simply isn’t gonna split director and picture again
for at least another two years. It happened in ’98
with Spielberg vs. Shakespeare in Love. It happened
again last year with Soderberg vs. Gladiator. It’s
not going to happen two years in a row. And I really
don’t think it’s gonna happen for a while. I think
that right now Hollywood wants stability. They’re
gonna have enough changes to go through in the next 5
– 10 years with all this digital crap that is going to
truly screw things up (or at least re-arrange them
significantly) in a relatively small space of time. I
think the Academy will opt for the consistency of
voting for the same director and picture. I think any
John Nash backlash will be directed at Crowe not at
the film. And I think that the Academy will wait
until The Two Towers or The Return of the King to
award LOTR. And that’s because the Academy’s not
going to be put in a position where it has to let LOTR
beat the record set by the Godfather films. Not gonna
happen. Even the younger generation won’t stand for
it. (What I mean by that is when LOTR came out, it
shot up to number one on the IMDB top 250 and stayed
there for a while. It beat out the Godfather for this
position. But over time, it slipped back down to
number two and The Godfather took back it’s number one
slot. The moral of the story is: NOBODY fucks with
The Godfather. Funny, that’s the actual moral of “The
Godfather”)
Who should win? I’ve been thinking about it. And
from the movies nominated that I’ve seen (all but
Gosford Park) I have to say the best one all around
was A Beautiful Mind. I’m making that my top pick. I
had enough issues with the other films, which, good as
they were, had their flaws. And ABM’s got some flaws,
too, but it does a better job at making up for them.
But what I really think should win. My personal movie
of the year. Memento. I’m calling this in terms of
(excuse the irony) memorability. (not a word, I know)
But I’m telling ya, years and years from now I’m still
gonna be thinking about Memento, I’m still gonna be
using it to teach people about screenwriting and
perception vs. reality in film and if I ever teach
editing you bet your ass I’m gonna bring this up.
Memento is gonna last. For me, anyway.
So, there you have it. Much too long, I know. But I
hope you enjoyed it.
-Dave